Extrapolative Thinking

There's a small subtle thing we utilize more than we notice and that's extrapolative thinking. At its core, it's thinking about how the future might unfold if things keep on going a certain way. We often see it associated with big topics like technology and economics. But it also seeps into our everyday life - when we consider whether a find might move out of town or how our relationship will change once we graduate. Extrapolative thinking in not at all limited to grand visions and scientific breakthroughs, it applies to our daily life especially to the way we relate to others and ourselves.

Since infancy we are born to notice patterns. We grow to observe cause and effect, consistency and change. When a baby is learning how to walk, they are in a sense extrapolating, "if i do this again, the same outcome will happen." As we grow it becomes more complex, we learn to notice how a friend's behavior changes over time, or how arguments in family follow a very predictable script. We start saying to ourselves "I know where this is going."

As straightforward as it may have sounded, extrapolative thinking is not simple at all. We continuously stop exercising it once our life gets busy. Bills, errands, relationships, constantly sway us from contemplating future arcs. Even when we do start thinking about it, we often default to following a comfortable script - career trajectories, milestones like marriage or retirement. Really taking some time out and engaging in extrapolative thinking can seem quite impractical and uncomfortable. However, this forward looking mindset can enrich our understanding of others, help us solve conflicts, and guide us to make more thoughtful choices.

When we start thinking about ourselves, we might have often noticed a trend that we start to do something but never fully make progress on it. We say that we will learn a new skill, but a few months pass and we have made no progress on it at all. If we take a step back, and use our extrapolative thinking we might start asking the question "if this continues, where will it lead me? what does it say about my changing priorities?" This introspection can motivate us to lean forward in the right direction and make meaningful progress. Think of this as something as simple as a weekly routine, if you've started spending more time alone, is it signaling that you need more rest or that you're pulling away from your social circle? Finding an answer to these questions can help you evolve over the next few months and give you a chance to decide if that's the path you want to walk on.

Similarly, we can also use this when it comes to relationships. If we pay attention to the small things that your friends brings up, new interests they are developing, or hint of stress they are exhibiting - we might be able to see a bigger picture emerging. By taking a step back and asking "where is this going?" not in a controlling way, but in a gentle exploration of possibilities, we will see a bigger picture.

Barriers to extrapolative thinking - present bias - fear of being wrong - habituation

We can strengthen it by - regular reflection - mental simulations - small experiments - conscious conversations